OperatorsOctober 22, 2026

Can Wynn Al Marjan Make US$1.66 Billion a Year? The Revenue Forecast Explained

Wynn forecasts US$1.0-1.66bn a year in gaming revenue at Wynn Al Marjan, base case US$1.33bn. How the model works, what Wolfe Research says and the risks.

Casino in Dubai Editorial TeamOct 22, 202610 min read

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Can Wynn Al Marjan Make US$1.66 Billion a Year? The Revenue Forecast Explained

Last updated: 22 October 2026

US$1.66 billion is Wynn Resorts' high case, not its central forecast. In its December 2025 investor deck, Wynn projected annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Wynn Al Marjan Island of US$1.0 billion in a low case, US$1.33 billion in a base case and US$1.66 billion in a high case, once the resort reaches steady state. In October 2026, Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino argued that the resort could beat those targets, using Singapore as his benchmark. Neither forecast can be tested until the casino opens in September 2027.

Key takeaways

Wynn's own steady-state forecast: GGR of US$1.0bn, US$1.33bn or US$1.66bn; net revenue of US$1.375bn to US$1.875bn; Adjusted Property EBITDA of US$390m to US$570m.
The model assumes about 1 million regular customers, each visiting about three times a year with an average stay of 1.2 days and losing US$325–475 a day on average (the casino's expected win, before luck).
It also assumes three integrated resorts in the UAE sharing a US$3–5 billion market. Wolfe, according to World Casino News, thinks the market could eventually support four or five casinos.
Even the base case would make Al Marjan one of Wynn's bigger earners, ahead of Wynn Macau and behind Wynn Palace and Las Vegas.
Wynn's forecasts predate August's US$600 million budget increase and have not been restated.

Where does the US$1.66 billion figure come from?

It is the top of Wynn's own range. Wynn first published a US$1.0–1.67 billion GGR range with a US$1.33 billion base case at an investor update on 8 October 2024. It repeated the forecast, rounded to US$1,660 million, at its UAE Market Tour on 4 December 2025. The table below is from slide 67 of that deck:

Steady state (US$ m) — Low — Base — High

Gross gaming revenue — 1,000 — 1,330 — 1,660
Net revenue — 1,375 — 1,625 — 1,875
Adj. Property EBITDA — 390 — 465 — 570

The EBITDA figure is after management and licence fees paid to Wynn Resorts (US$110–230 million a year), so Wynn earns money from the resort both as an owner and as its operator. In the base case, Wynn's 40 per cent share of free cash flow plus those fees comes to about US$260 million a year.

"Steady state" does not mean the first year. The same deck says Wynn properties "have historically ramped in about 3 years", with a big jump between years one and two. A September 2027 opening suggests a full run-rate around 2030. That is our inference, not Wynn guidance.

How did Wynn build the forecast?

Wynn used two methods and says they agree.

Top-down. Wynn sizes UAE gaming at US$3–5 billion of GGR a year, assuming "two other competitive integrated resorts operating in the UAE (three total)" and about 11,000 gaming positions across the market. It then assumes a "Wynn market share of 33% and a 'Wynn Premium' of 1.2x GGR fair share", which gives US$1.0–1.7 billion. This is where the much-quoted "US$3–5 billion UAE market" comes from: it is Wynn's own estimate, not an independent one.

Bottom-up. Wynn starts with the 2.4 billion people who live within a four-hour flight and assumes 0.04 per cent of them, about 1 million people, become regular customers. Each visits 2.8–3.2 times a year, with an average length of stay of 1.2 days. The casino expects to win US$325–475 from each of them per visit-day, a measure the industry calls average daily theoretical (ADT). Multiplying through gives about 3.3 million visit-days a year in the base case. At US$400 a day, that is US$1.33 billion.

The model is most sensitive to trip frequency and daily spend. In Wynn's own table, three trips a year at US$500 a day reaches about US$1.66 billion, and 2.5 trips at US$350 gives under US$1 billion.

What does Wolfe Research say?

Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino argued in early October 2026 that Al Marjan "could beat the UAE GGR targets it laid out in December 2025". He benchmarked the UAE against Singapore, "another wealthy limited license casino market popular with tourists". He also said Wynn brings its luxury brand "to a UAE market brimming with demand for super-premium consumption, tourism and untold vices."

According to World Casino News, Wolfe values Wynn's 40 per cent stake at about US$48 a share, within a US$128 price target based on 8.5 times projected 2028 adjusted EBITDA. The same report says Wolfe thinks the market could eventually support four or five casinos, and it lists softer results at Wynn's Macau resorts among the risks. The coverage we have read gives no specific Wolfe GGR figure for Al Marjan, only the view that it beats Wynn's range.

Singapore is a demanding comparison. Las Vegas Sands reported US$4.21 billion of casino revenue at Marina Bay Sands in 2025, from about 157,000 sq ft of gaming space. That figure is net casino revenue, after commissions and incentives, so it is lower than GGR. Wynn's high case works out at about US$7,400 of GGR per square foot of its 225,000 sq ft floor. Marina Bay Sands made about US$26,800 per square foot even on the lower net measure (our arithmetic). The bull case has room to grow. But Singapore has two resorts serving a wealthy city-state of about 6.2 million people and a large regional tourist market, while Ras Al Khaimah is about an hour's drive from Dubai.

What would US$1.33 billion mean for Wynn?

Al Marjan would immediately become one of Wynn's main assets. Wynn's 2025 results by property, from its annual report:

Las Vegas Operations: US$2.57bn net revenue; US$902m Adjusted Property EBITDAR
Wynn Palace: US$2.31bn; US$683m
Wynn Macau: US$1.41bn; US$402m
Encore Boston Harbor: US$847m; US$237m

On those figures, Al Marjan's base-case US$1.625 billion of net revenue would rank third, ahead of Wynn Macau. Its US$465 million EBITDA would also beat Wynn Macau's 2025 result, though EBITDA and EBITDAR are not identical measures. Wynn's base-case share of about US$345 million (EBITDA plus fees) is equal to about 15 per cent of the US$2.22 billion of property EBITDAR Wynn earned across all four properties in 2025.

Why does Macau matter here?

Mainly for comparison and for Wynn's group results. Macau's 2026 has cooled. Official figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) show GGR up 3.2 per cent year on year to MOP187.1 billion in the first nine months. But each month from June to September was lower than the year before, and September's MOP18.06 billion was the weakest month of 2026. Wynn's Macau resorts still produce most of its EBITDAR outside Las Vegas, so a UAE resort that is not tied to Chinese demand would spread Wynn's risk. That is part of why analysts value Al Marjan highly.

What could make the forecast wrong?

Who is allowed in. The National has reported that the GCGRA, not Wynn, "will determine who is permitted into the gaming area". Wynn's October 2024 presentation put domestic visitors at 34 per cent of base-case GGR, according to iGaming Business. A footnote in the December 2025 deck says its UAE population sizing "assumes non-Emirati population". No entry rules have been published.
Competition. Wynn's model assumes three resorts in total. Wolfe's four or five would mean more supply in the same market.
Cost and timing. The forecast returns were calculated on a US$5.1 billion budget. In August 2026, Wynn added about US$600 million and moved the opening to September 2027.
Geopolitics. The 2026 regional conflict disrupted supply chains and, by Wynn's account, pushed back the opening. Billings told analysts Wynn "didn't underwrite a region with zero geopolitical risk."

The upside case rests on the point Billings made on the August 2026 earnings call: "given that we will be a monopoly, demand should exceed supply." Island 3 AMI FZ-LLC, listed as Wynn Al Marjan, is still the only land-based gaming licensee on the GCGRA register.

What happens next?

Wynn reports third-quarter results on 5 November 2026. The resort is not open, so it will have no revenue to report. Each recent 10-Q has updated Wynn's estimate of the equity it still has to put in, though none has stated a total budget. Actual GGR data will not exist until after September 2027, and Wynn has not said whether it will report the resort as a separate segment.

The UAE's position has not changed: gambling is illegal outside the GCGRA-licensed framework, and Wynn Al Marjan Island is the only casino project licensed so far.

FAQ

How much revenue will Wynn Al Marjan Island make? Wynn forecasts steady-state gross gaming revenue of US$1.0–1.66 billion a year, with a base case of US$1.33 billion, and net revenue of US$1.375–1.875 billion. These are Wynn's projections, not results.

Is US$1.66 billion Wynn's official target? It is the high case in Wynn's December 2025 investor presentation. The base case is US$1.33 billion.

Who said the UAE gaming market is worth US$3–5 billion? Wynn itself, in its October 2024 and December 2025 investor materials, assuming three integrated resorts in the UAE.

What did Wolfe Research say about Wynn Al Marjan? Analyst Peter Supino argued that the resort could beat Wynn's own GGR targets, using Singapore as a benchmark. Reports say Wolfe values Wynn's stake at about US$48 a share within a US$128 price target.

When will we know the real numbers? Not before the resort opens in September 2027. Wynn says its properties typically take about three years to reach full run-rate.

Sources

Wynn Resorts, "Wynn Al Marjan Island UAE Market Tour" presentation (December 2025): https://investors.wynnresorts.com/static-files/1e114937-d568-4ee1-9e0f-3c65b17fdd80
iGaming Business, "Middle East's first licensee Wynn talks up $5bn UAE gaming opportunity" (8 October 2024): https://igamingbusiness.com/casino/property-development/wynn-uae-casino-revenue/
World Casino News, "Wynn Al Marjan could outperform revenue targets, Wolfe says" (12 October 2026): https://news.worldcasinodirectory.com/wynn-al-marjan-could-outperform-revenue-targets-wolfe-says-124665
G3 Newswire, "Wynn could beat its own targets when Wynn Al Marjan Island launches" (9 October 2026): https://g3newswire.com/wynn-could-beat-its-own-targets-when-wynn-al-marjan-island-launches/
Wynn Resorts, Form 10-K for 2025 (2 March 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1174922/000117492226000013/wynn-20251231.htm
Las Vegas Sands, Form 10-K for 2025 (6 February 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1300514/000130051426000013/lvs-20251231.htm
Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), "Monthly Gross Revenue from Games of Fortune in 2026 and 2025" (accessed 17 October 2026): https://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/information/DadosEstat_mensal/2026/index.html
Investing.com, "Earnings call transcript: Wynn Resorts tops Q2 2026 estimates, shares rise" (4 August 2026): https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-wynn-resorts-tops-q2-2026-estimates-shares-rise-93CH-4835984
The National, "What to expect at Wynn Al Marjan Island" (5 August 2026): https://www.thenationalnews.com/travel/2026/08/05/wynn-al-marjan-island-gaming-gambling-restaurants-art/
Wynn Resorts, "Wynn Resorts Announces Third Quarter Earnings Release Date" (6 October 2026): https://investors.wynnresorts.com/news-releases/news-release-details/wynn-resorts-announces-third-quarter-earnings-release-date-14